Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.014147 0.016020 0.018051 0.020419 0.023103 0.026054 0.029545
2025-07-13 0.011467 0.014107 0.017216 0.021154 0.026012 0.031819 0.039299
2025-07-20 0.009933 0.012929 0.016664 0.021669 0.028215 0.036501 0.047819
2025-07-27 0.008917 0.012156 0.016384 0.022321 0.030463 0.041272 0.056769
2025-08-03 0.007868 0.011160 0.015634 0.022174 0.031520 0.044447 0.063775
2025-08-10 0.007070 0.010392 0.015069 0.022155 0.032665 0.047748 0.071169
2025-08-17 0.006307 0.009574 0.014326 0.021765 0.033175 0.050110 0.077329
2025-08-24 0.005834 0.009126 0.014059 0.022023 0.034628 0.053932 0.085979
2025-08-31 0.005329 0.008571 0.013568 0.021867 0.035393 0.056722 0.093214
2025-09-07 0.005035 0.008316 0.013510 0.022371 0.037220 0.061300 0.103702
2025-09-14 0.004528 0.007664 0.012753 0.021656 0.036969 0.062453 0.108551
2025-09-21 0.004166 0.007220 0.012293 0.021386 0.037418 0.064775 0.115552
2025-09-28 0.003750 0.006653 0.011590 0.020651 0.037030 0.065679 0.120242
2025-10-05 0.003620 0.006574 0.011717 0.021389 0.039309 0.071449 0.134265
2025-10-12 0.003467 0.006438 0.011729 0.021910 0.041230 0.076720 0.147830
2025-10-19 0.003346 0.006349 0.011815 0.022569 0.043454 0.082718 0.163314
2025-10-26 0.003124 0.006052 0.011491 0.022420 0.044115 0.085811 0.173384
2025-11-02 0.002940 0.005810 0.011247 0.022402 0.045019 0.089432 0.184818
2025-11-09 0.002727 0.005492 0.010833 0.022007 0.045132 0.091487 0.193205
2025-11-16 0.002607 0.005349 0.010749 0.022268 0.046596 0.096369 0.207943
2025-11-23 0.002450 0.005120 0.010474 0.022111 0.047170 0.099458 0.219103
2025-11-30 0.002374 0.005051 0.010516 0.022620 0.049196 0.105748 0.237835
2025-12-07 0.002184 0.004725 0.010003 0.021897 0.048491 0.106130 0.243367